Market won’t crash if Trump is impeached: Wall Street insiders
Stocks will not crater if President Trump is impeached, Wall Street insiders told The Post on Thursday.
Although his supporters have credited Trump with giving a lift to stocks because he has rolled back regulations and successfully pressed for a tax cut last year, his steady hand is not needed to keep stocks at their level, the insiders said.
“While many of President Trump’s legislative initiatives have helped the market, his domestic economic program has already been signed into law,” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors, told The Post.
The conversation about Trump and the markets took flight Thursday morning after the president, in a TV interview, predicted gloom and doom should he be charged with a crime by Congress.
“If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, I think everybody would be very poor, because without this thinking, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse,” Trump told Fox News.
Impeachment talk intensified this week after Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleaded guilty Tuesday to eight charges, including one involving campaign finance fraud.
Cohen asserted in his plea that candidate Trump instructed him to break campaign finance laws.
“The US government is designed such that no one person alone can topple the entire system,” Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, told The Post.
Although there might be a quick drop in the market if Trump were impeached, it would likely rebound just as quickly, because the market is more concerned with corporate earnings, analysts noted.
“Markets definitely don’t like political upheaval, but Trump is largely overstating his impact,” Jared Bernstein, an Obama administration economist, told The Post.
Some Wall Street insiders cited the markets’ reaction to the impeachment proceedings against President Clinton as evidence that markets today wouldn’t crater under similar circumstances.
The S&P 500 soared 29 percent — after news broke in January 1998 of Clinton’s sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky — through Feb. 12, 1999, when the Senate voted to acquit Clinton of impeachment charges.
The economy was doing well at the time, thanks in part to accommodative monetary policy by then-Federal Reserve boss Alan Greenspan.
The ’90s boom times have more in common with today’s economy than the broader economic malaise of the 1970s, when impeachment talk swirled around President Nixon.
Although the Fed is currently on a tightening path, it still has room to adjust its policies if Trump were impeached and there was evidence the turmoil was slowing the economy.
“The Fed is building up weaponry. I can’t imagine they’d go lower, but they certainly could pause the normalization campaign,” Bernstein said.
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