Brexit deal: How the numbers stack up against Theresa May
The 2017 election called by Theresa May saw her lose her majority meaning she has to rely on members of the Democratic Unionist Party to get anything through comfortably.
But Arlene Foster’s Northern Irish block has already said it won’t be supporting the deal Mrs May brought back from Brussels, so she will have to look elsewhere.
However, with her own Conservative Party divided, she’ll have to go to MPs in the Labour Party in her hunt for votes.
It’s likely she’ll also be trying to persuade MPs of other parties, like the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, though she probably won’t be picking up support there.
Where is Theresa May losing the votes she needs?
Mrs May needs 318 votes to get her deal through the House of Commons. A vote is set to take place around the middle of December.
The Prime Minister can’t count on the 10 DUP MPs with whom she has a confidence and supply deal.
A group of 57 hard-line Conservative MPs have signed up to a campaign called StandUp4Brexit, and say they will not support the current deal.
On the other side of the party are the eight Remainers, the Conservative MPs who have backed the People’s Vote campaign calling for a second referendum.
There are another eight Tory MPs who say they cannot support the deal.
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There are six Conservative MPs who resigned their positions in protest at the deal, including former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab.
The SNP has expressed discontent, and 35 of its MPs say they won’t back the deal.
The Liberal Democrats have 12 MPs who are thought to be planning to vote against.
Labour as the opposition are likely to vote against. There are 15 MPs who represent Leave constituencies, so could go with the government, but that leaves Mrs May facing 242 votes against the deal.
In terms of smaller parties, there are about six MPs, from Plaid Cymru and the Greens who will not vote with the deal.
How many votes does this leave the Prime Minister with?
Out of 650 MPs in the Commons, the numbers appear to show she will not be able to count on at least 384 votes.
This leaves her about 66 votes short of getting the deal through Parliament with a majority.
But this doesn’t fully account for those MPs who might be abstaining.
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