U.S. retail sales expected to rise to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021: NRF

(Reuters) – U.S. retail sales are expected to rise between 6.5% and 8.2% to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021 as more people get vaccinated and the economy reopens, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Wednesday.

Preliminary results show retail sales for 2020 grew 6.7% to $4.06 trillion, above the trade body’s forecast of at least 3.5% growth, the NRF said. The retail sales numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“Our principal assumption is that the vaccination will be effective and permits accelerated growth during the mid-year. The economy is expected to see its fastest growth in over two decades.” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.

U.S. retailers such as Macy’s have indicated that it is accounting for some benefits from the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine as shoppers will be able to step out and travel more, helping sales at brick-and-mortar stores pick up after a rough 2020.

New rounds of stimulus-driven consumer spending in the coming months will strengthen retail sales, should the U.S. Congress pass the Biden administration’s support plan that includes sending a $1,400 check to households.

The trade body also said online sales, which are included in the overall number for 2021, were expected to increase between 18% and 23% to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion.

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