Spain fury: Scotland will get ‘no special treatment’ if it tries to join EU – SNP alert
Catalonia: Expert on EU stripping separatists of immunity
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Pressure is building in the wake of Thursday’s Holyrood elections, with the SNP falling agonisingly short of an overall majority after winning 64 seats in Scottish Parliament. Mrs Sturgeon is nevertheless pushing for another referendum on the subject, seven years after the last one, and is already committed to rejoining the EU if she succeeds and Scotland does vote to quit the UK.
However, Ignacio Molina, a senior analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid, suggested Spain was likely to have grave reservations, mainly stemming from Catalonia’s abortive attempt to declare independence in 2017.
Mr Molina suggested the Spanish government was likely to see uncomfortable parallels with the situation in Scotland.
He tweeted: “It is crucial for Spain that any Scottish secession is legal under UK law, and not declared unilaterally as Catalonia’s regional government tried to do in 2017.
“Yet as long as this condition is respected, there won’t be a veto.
“The calming of the political situation in Catalonia as well as the composition of the current left-wing Spanish government, partially supported by moderate pro-independence Catalans, helps to put emphasis on technical considerations without strong politicisation of the issue.”
Nevertheless, Mr Molina added: “Madrid will likely demand certain assurances.
What the Spanish diplomacy has always underlined is that Scotland would need to apply as any other candidate, with no shortcuts or privileges
Ignacio Molina
“What the Spanish diplomacy has always underlined is that Scotland would need to apply as any other candidate, with no shortcuts or privileges, such as for example an opt-out from the euro currency or the Schengen zone.
“Part of this ‘no privileges’ approach is that Spain wouldn’t accept the EU giving any assurance to Scotland ahead of an independence referendum that it has a guaranteed path to membership, as was recently asked in an open letter by more than 170 figures from across the EU.”
Four years ago, an unofficial referendum in Catalonia resulted in more than 90 percent voting to break away from Spain – but critics pointed out that the turnout was barely 43 percent.
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The aftermath saw widespread violence and riot police clashed with protesters, and Carles Puigdemont, Catalan’s President, and his cabinet subsequently fled the country, with international warrants issued for their arrest.
Mr Puigdemont is currently living in exile in Morocco.
Speaking in 2018, Joseph Borrell, who is now the EU’s High Representative, or top diplomat, but was at the time Spain’s Foreign Minister, appeared to give tacit backing to an independent Scotland joining the bloc.
Asked if a Spanish Government would accept the idea, he said: “Why not? If they leave Britain in accordance with their internal regulation, if Westminster agrees why should we be against it?”
He added: “I think the United Kingdom will split apart before Spain.”
However, speaking to Express.co.uk last month, Mar Aguilera Vaques, professor of constitutional law at the University of Barcelona, suggested the Spanish Government might opt not to acknowledge Scotland’s independence.
She said: “We had a football match. Spain against Kosovo and there was the biggest scandal.
“On Spanish television they wrote Kosovo in lower case because Spain doesn’t recognise its independence.”
Ms Aquilera Vaques added: “I guess it would be the same for Scotland for sure.
“They don’t want to replicate what is happening here with Catalonia.”
Speaking alongside former French President Francis Hollande prior to the 2013 referendum, former Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said: “It’s very clear to me, as it is for everybody else in the world, that a country that would obtain independence from the EU would remain out of the EU.
“And that is good for Scottish citizens to know and for all EU citizens to know.”
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