What did the voters think? First political poll since Budget out tonight

There was no post-Budget bump for Labour in tonight’s 1 News Colmar Brunton poll, taken in the days after last Thursday’s Budget.

The poll had Labour on 46 per cent, down three points since the last poll in March.

National was on 29 per cent – up two points and nearly over the 30 per cent barrier again.

The Green Party was on 8 per cent, down one point and Act was on 9 per cent – up one point.

The Māori Party stayed on 2 per cent.

Judith Collin’s ranking as preferred Prime Minister was on 9 per cent.

However, Collins’ approval ratings had plummeted to minus 19 (the difference between those who rated Collins as performing well and performing badly).

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had jumped up again in the preferred Prime Minister ranks to 48 per cent.

Act leader David Seymour’s stocks were also on the rise: he was up two points to 6 per cent – very close to Judith Collins. It was Act’s highest party poll result in the poll since 1999.

Christopher Luxon had also ticked up a bit more to 3 per cent, and former leader Simon Bridges was at 2 per cent.

Green MP Chloe Swarbrick was next on 2 per cent.

1 News also asked Ardern if she would do another term – a question Ardern brushed off, saying she was only one year into a new term and the media were already asking about the next election.

The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll tonight was taken after Labour delivered its first Budget of the parliamentary term last Thursday.

The headline item in that was lifting benefit payments by up to $55 a week over the next two years as Ardern moved on her promise to try to reduce child poverty.

It was criticised by some for offering little to low or middle-income earners – but defended by Ardern for delivering to those who most needed it.

Labour has not dropped below 61 seats in any poll since election night.

It is also the first 1 News poll since the transtasman bubble kicked off, and comes amiduncertainty around whether vaccine supply dates could impact on the vaccination rollout.

National will be keenly watching to see if its ongoing claims that the Government has a “separatism by stealth” agenda are having any traction.

The last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll in March had Labour on 49 per cent, National on 27 per cent, the Greens on 9 per cent, Act on 8 per cent and Te Paati Māori on two per cent.

As preferred Prime Minister, Ardern was on 43 per cent in the March poll – down 15 points from the post-election December poll.

Ardern was still well ahead of National Party leader Judith Collins, who was on 8 per cent.

New National MP Christopher Luxon is also now appearing in the preferred Prime Minister stakes at around 2 per cent support in both polls – Luxon has long been tipped as a potential leader for the National Party.

A Newshub Reid Research poll 10 days ago had Labour at 52.7 per cent (up slightly on its election result) and National at 27 per cent (also up a bit).

In the preferred PM stakes, Ardern polled at 48.1 per cent (down 4.5 percentage points); Judith Collins was at 5.6 per cent (down 12.8 percentage points).

Former PM John Key was higher than Collins on 6.7 per cent, while backbench MP Christopher Luxon was on 2.4 per cent.

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