{"id":105842,"date":"2021-01-29T17:31:23","date_gmt":"2021-01-29T17:31:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=105842"},"modified":"2021-01-29T17:31:23","modified_gmt":"2021-01-29T17:31:23","slug":"u-s-consumer-spending-declines-further-inflation-gradually-rising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/markets\/u-s-consumer-spending-declines-further-inflation-gradually-rising\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. consumer spending declines further; inflation gradually rising"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month in December amid renewed business restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 and a temporary expiration of government-funded benefits for millions of unemployed Americans.<\/p>

FILE PHOTO: Destiny USA mall reopens as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions are eased in Syracuse, New York, U.S., July 10, 2020. REUTERS\/Maranie Staab<\/figcaption>

The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed inflation steadily rising last month. Expectations that inflation would perk up this year were supported by other data showing a solid increase in labor costs in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

But a rise above the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target, a flexible average, is unlikely to worry policymakers. The U.S. central bank is seen maintaining its ultra-easy policy stance for a while as the economy battles the COVID-19 pandemic. Excess capacity remains throughout the economy, which could limit companies\u2019 ability to raise prices.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Fed would like inflation to average 2%, so it would like inflation to temporarily move above 2%,\u201d said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. \u201cInflation pressures will remain limited to a few sectors as high unemployment will restrain wage growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slipped 0.2% last month as outlays at restaurants declined. Spending at hospitals also fell, likely as patients stayed away in fear of contracting the coronavirus.<\/p>\n

Households also cut back spending on recreation. Consumer spending tumbled 0.7% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast spending falling 0.4% in December.<\/p>\n

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending decreased 0.6% in December after dropping 0.7% in November. That likely sets a lower base for consumer spending in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

Graphics: Personal consumption –<\/p>\n

The data was included in Thursday\u2019s advance gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy growing at a 4% annualized rate after a record 33.4% pace in the July-September period. Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% rate last quarter following a spectacular 41.0% growth pace in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot only will consumption start from a weak base but containment measures that are restricting activity will likely weigh on spending,\u201d said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.<\/p>\n

Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment measure eased in January. A third report from the National Association of Realtors showed contracts to purchase homes decreasing for a fourth straight month in December, suggesting some moderation in the housing market, one the economy\u2019s star performers.<\/p>\n

Graphics: Consumer sentiment –<\/p>\n

Growth is expected to decelerate to around a 2% rate in the first quarter as the economy works through the disruptions from a virus surge in winter. The government provided nearly $900 billion in additional relief in late December. This together with an anticipated pick-up in the distribution of vaccines is likely to spur faster growth by summer.<\/p>\n

President Joe Biden has also unveiled a recovery plan worth $1.9 trillion, though the package is likely to be pared down amid worries about the nation\u2019s swelling debt.<\/p>\n

U.S. stocks were trading lower. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.<\/p>\n

INCOME REBOUNDS<\/h2>\n

The late December stimulus package included direct cash payments to some households and renewed a $300 unemployment supplement until March 14. Government-funded programs for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the state unemployment programs as well as those who have exhausted their benefits were also extended.<\/p>\n

That helped to boost personal income, which rebounded 0.6% after tumbling 1.3% in November. Some of the money was stashed away. The saving rate rose to 13.7% from 12.9% in November.<\/p>\n

Despite weak consumer spending inflation edged higher. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy component gained 0.3% after being unchanged in November.<\/p>\n

In the 12 months through December, the so-called core PCE price index increased 1.5% after advancing 1.4% in November. The core PCE index is the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure.<\/p>\n

Graphics: Inflation –<\/p>\n

The gradually firming inflation environment was reinforced by a fourth report from the Labor Department showing its Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7% last quarter after advancing 0.5% in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

That lifted the year-on-year rate of increase to 2.5% from 2.4% in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

The ECI is widely viewed by policymakers and economists as one of the better measures of labor market slack and a predictor of core inflation as it adjusts for composition and job quality changes. Economists had forecast the ECI climbing 0.5% in the fourth quarter. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% after gaining 0.4% in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

But with employment still 10 million jobs below its pre-pandemic peak, the rise is probably unsustainable. Still, inflation is seen accelerating in the months ahead as weak readings last March and April drop from the calculation.<\/p>\n

Strengthening economic growth, driven by fiscal stimulus and the inoculation of more Americans against COVID-19, is also expected to boost price pressures.<\/p>\n

Bottlenecks in the supply chain are raising costs for manufacturers and they are passing on the increases to consumers. Recent manufacturing surveys have shown a surge in price measures for both raw materials and finished products.<\/p>\n

\u201cThough inflation will accelerate this year, some of that will be transitory,\u201d said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n

Source: Read Full Article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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