{"id":109656,"date":"2021-03-16T13:03:50","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T13:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=109656"},"modified":"2021-03-16T13:03:50","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T13:03:50","slug":"germanys-astrazeneca-move-could-stymie-recovery-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/markets\/germanys-astrazeneca-move-could-stymie-recovery-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany's AstraZeneca move could stymie recovery, economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"
BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany\u2019s decision to suspend AstraZeneca\u2019s COVID-19 vaccine could delay progress in reaching herd immunity and postpone a much-hoped for easing of lockdown measures needed for a robust recovery in the second quarter, economists said on Tuesday.<\/p> Health Minister Jens Spahn described Monday\u2019s move on the AstraZeneca shot as a precaution, making Germany the latest of several European countries to hit pause following reports of blood coagulation disorders in some recipients.<\/p>\n The government\u2019s decision was based on a recommendation from the politically independent Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), Germany\u2019s authority in charge of vaccines, following newly registered cases of a very rare cerebral vein thrombosis, including three deaths.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom an economic point of view, the problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine come at a highly unfavourable time,\u201d Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer said, pointing to an increasing number of new coronavirus infections in Germany.<\/p>\n The crucial question now is how long use of the AstraZeneca vaccine will remain suspended, Kraemer said.<\/p>\n EU countries that have halted AstraZeneca shots are awaiting the all-clear from the European Medicines Agency. It was due to give a news conference on Tuesday at 1300 GMT.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it were no longer allowed to be used permanently, the point where Germany will reach herd immunity will be delayed by one to two months,\u201d Kraemer said.<\/p> \u2018GAME CHANGER\u2019<\/p>\n In such a scenario, politicians would probably be forced to put the brakes on any further easing steps, which could delay the economic recovery, he added.<\/p>\n ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine was increasing the risks that the economic recovery could be delayed into the third quarter.<\/p>\n \u201cThe decision is a game changer – at least in the short term,\u201d ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said.<\/p>\n Brzeski said the move not only delayed what has already been a slow vaccination rollout, but also increased general vaccine scepticism among Germans as significantly fewer people might now be willing to get the AstraZeneca shot voluntarily.<\/p>\n Germany\u2019s second lockdown has stopped a recovery in Europe\u2019s largest economy, but recent data for the first quarter suggest there won\u2019t be a \u201cdrastic plunge\u201d in gross domestic product as seen during the first lockdown, the Statistics Office said.<\/p>\n The German economy suffered an unprecedented plunge of 9.7% in the second quarter of 2020 due to the impact of the first lockdown. It then registered record growth of 8.5% in the third quarter and continued to expand by 0.3% in the fourth quarter despite new curbs to contain a second wave of infections.<\/p>\n A survey by ZEW economic institute conducted before the vaccine decision showed on Tuesday that investor sentiment in Germany increased by more than expected in March, buoying the outlook for a broad-based recovery.<\/p>\n Recent German data has painted a picture of a two-speed economy, in which export-oriented manufacturers are doing well while domestically driven services are suffering under lockdown measures imposed in early November and tightened in mid-December.<\/p>\n \u201cEconomic optimism continues to rise. Experts expect a broad-based recovery of the German economy,\u201d ZEW President Achim Wambach said in a statement.<\/p>\n