{"id":110187,"date":"2021-03-22T15:35:31","date_gmt":"2021-03-22T15:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=110187"},"modified":"2021-03-22T15:35:31","modified_gmt":"2021-03-22T15:35:31","slug":"how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/","title":{"rendered":"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last Friday, Ark Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney posted the hot investment firm\u2019s three-year price target for electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). By 2025, Ark expects Tesla\u2019s stock to rise by a factor of nearly five, from around $650 to $3,000. The firm\u2019s previous price target for Tesla was a split-adjusted $1,400 by 2024. On a pre-split basis, Tesla stock would trade at $15,000 a share in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>If Tesla meets Ark\u2019s bull-case price target of $4,000 per share, the automaker\u2019s market cap would rise from around $673 billion today to a whopping $4 trillion by 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Keeney\u2019s updated target is based on five key points:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Pushing the target date out an additional year<\/li>\n<li>Refining Ark\u2019s estimate of Tesla\u2019s capital efficiency<\/li>\n<li>Adding in Tesla\u2019s insurance business<\/li>\n<li>Including an assumed human-driven ride-hailing service<\/li>\n<li>Increasing the probability of Tesla achieving fully autonomous driving within five years<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In Keeney\u2019s bull case, Tesla\u2019s annual revenue in 2025 reaches $700 billion with a gross margin of 50%. Over the past decade, GM\u2019s highest gross margin was around 14.5%. Apple\u2019s highest gross margin during the same period was 44.1%.<\/p>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) sales account for $367 billion of estimated 2025 revenues, and at an average selling price of $36,000, Tesla would have to sell around 10 million vehicles to reach that total. Ark\u2019s bear case for unit sales assumes around 5.2 million vehicles sold.<\/p>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said he expects Tesla deliveries to increase by 40% to 50% annually through 2030. That indicates current annual production of around 500,000 vehicles will grow to production of around 4 million vehicles by 2030. S&#038;P Global Platt\u2019s estimates that the total U.S. market for EVs in 2025 will be around 1.5 million units.<\/p>\n<p>The second-largest component of Tesla\u2019s bullish revenue stream, according to Ark, is a fully autonomous ride-hailing (robotaxi) service that is expected to generate some $327 billion in 2025\u2019s bullish case. That service generates no revenue in the bear case. A human-driven service could generate $42 billion in the bear case.<\/p>\n<p>That estimate for a robotaxi service accounting for nearly half of 2025 revenue is generating the most discussion about Ark\u2019s price target. Keeney projects a 50% probability that Tesla will operate its own robotaxi fleet by 2025. Given consumers\u2019 reluctance to ride in, much less own, a fully autonomous EV, that five-year timeline appears to be pretty aggressive.<\/p>\n<p>Then there are federal and state regulators to get through. A five-year time frame to reach Ark\u2019s high revenue estimate means that something would need to happen quickly, even as soon as the end of the year. Even Tesla can\u2019t ramp revenue from $0 to $327 billion in a couple of years.<\/p>\n<p>The following charts from Ark\u2019s new report on Tesla show both the range of targets and the likelihood that they will materialize.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ARK-Invest_Tesla-Price-Target-Estimate-2025_Update.jpg?w=645\"><span>Source: ARK Investment Management LLC<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ARK-Invest_Scenerio-Mix-within-Tesla-Price-Target.jpg?w=645\"><span>Source: ARK Investment Management LLC<\/span>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/autos\/2021\/03\/22\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Read Full Article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Friday, Ark Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney posted the hot investment firm\u2019s three-year price target for electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). By [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":110186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last Friday, Ark Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney posted the hot investment firm\u2019s three-year price target for electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). By [...]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Fin2me\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/cfntalkfotoimageForEntry1-HMO.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\",\"name\":\"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Business\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/category\/business\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/\",\"name\":\"Fin2me\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a\",\"name\":\"Mark\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mark\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me","og_description":"Last Friday, Ark Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney posted the hot investment firm\u2019s three-year price target for electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). By [...]","og_url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/","og_site_name":"Fin2me","article_published_time":"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00","author":"Mark","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_image":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/cfntalkfotoimageForEntry1-HMO.jpg","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mark","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/","url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/","name":"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap - Fin2me","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00","dateModified":"2021-03-22T15:35:31+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/how-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sees-tesla-hitting-3000-a-share-a-4-trillion-market-cap\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Business","item":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/category\/business\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"How Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Sees Tesla Hitting $3,000 a Share, a $4 Trillion Market Cap"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/","name":"Fin2me","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a","name":"Mark","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mark"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110187"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}