While some of the services sectors such as hospitality, entertainment and aviation have been grappling with a significant decline in their businesses, any reduction in e-way bill generation could point towards a significant decline in GDP.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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E-way bill generation, which is related to paying Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a key high-frequency indicator of economic activity, may have fallen to a five-month low in April as more cities experience lockdowns due to a surge in Covid-19 cases.<\/p>\n

In April e-way bill generation may decline to 55-58 million, which is the lowest since at least November.<\/p>\n

On the higher side, it is a 17 per cent decline over March.<\/p>\n

E-way bill generation in April will reflect in the GST numbers of May, which, experts say, could see a fall of close to 20 per cent.<\/p>\n

According to the data by the GST Network (GSTN), the IT backbone of the unified indirect tax regime, 48.9 million e-way bills were generated on its portal as of April 25.<\/p>\n

This averages 1.95 million per day and Rs 5.86 crore for the month in value compared to an average of 2.29 million e-way bills per day generated in the previous month.<\/p>\n

March saw 71.2 million e-way bills, which reflected in record GST collection in April at Rs 1.41 trillion. The GST collection numbers for April capture largely transactions or supplies in March.<\/p>\n

February also saw an average e-way bill generation of 2.28 million per day.<\/p>\n

In November there were 57.7 million e-way bills. E-way bills are compulsory for moving a consignment of over Rs 50,000, and hence is an early indicator of trends in demand and supply in the economy, which reflects in macroeconomic indicators with a lag.<\/p>\n

August had seen 49.4 million e-way bills, an average of 1.59 million per day.<\/p>\n

The economy had started showing recovery signs in September last year after the impact of the lockdown in the first quarter wore off.<\/p>\n

GST collection has been exceeding Rs 1 trillion since October last year.<\/p>\n

“GST collection is likely to dip below Rs 1 trillion in May, which was being achieved for the last several months.<\/p>\n

“Also, with the recent announcement on waiving late fees and reduced interest rates for GST filings, a lot of businesses may defer tax payments in May, resulting in reduced tax revenues in the coming months,” said Harpreet Singh, partner, KPMG.<\/p>\n

M S Mani, senior director, Deloitte India, said the all-time high collection in April, which relates to supplies made in March, could now give way to a muted mop-up in the coming months.<\/p>\n

“While some of the services sectors such as hospitality, entertainment and aviation have been grappling with a significant decline in their businesses, any reduction in e-way bill generation could point towards a significant decline in GDP,” said Mani.<\/p>\n

Rajat Mohan, partner, AMRG Associates, said weekend lockdowns, night curfews, etc across several states had dealt a blow to supply chains country.<\/p>\n

Citi has lowered India’s GDP estimates for FY22 by 50 basis points to 12 per cent in 2021-22 and has warned of another 50 basis point cut.<\/p>\n

State Bank of India has also cut the forecast by 60 basis points.<\/p>\n

Source: Read Full Article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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