Helen Morgan finished in third place at the last general election; she now has a majority of almost 6,000.<\/p>\n
Despite the lower turnout overall, a drop of almost 22 percentage points, she more than trebled her personal vote.<\/p>\n
By-election news live: The latest reaction on the Lib Dem’s shock win in North Shropshire<\/strong><\/p>\n With so many North Shropshire voters switching allegiance, it is inescapable that a loss of trust in the government and its prime minister largely explains this result.<\/p>\n Conservatives with long memories will be thinking of how quickly the wheels fell off John Major’s government after his surprise general election victory in 1992.<\/p>\n The slide in the opinion polls began when the party lost and never recovered its reputation for sound economic management. The parallels with now are plain to see.<\/p>\n Then, as perhaps now, it was the Liberal Democrats inflicting serious electoral damage on the Tories.<\/p>\n By-election losses began with Newbury in May 1993, Christchurch two months later followed by two more in Eastleigh and Littleborough & Saddleworth.<\/p>\n Tory misery was complete when Tony Blair’s New Labour developed its own by-election momentum.<\/p>\n When Labour took Dudley West just months after Mr Blair became leader it did so with the party’s largest swing against the Conservatives – a whopping 29%.<\/p>\n More modest reverses were enough for Labour wins in subsequent by-election contests in the constituencies of South East Staffordshire and Wirral South.<\/p>\n The 1997 general election that followed brought massive losses of Conservative seats, including former Cabinet ministers, a big boost for Paddy Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats and ushered in 13 years of Blair\/Brown administrations.<\/p>\n It takes a leap of imagination, however, currently to cast Sir Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet colleagues as successors to Mr Blair’s government in waiting.<\/p>\n Given the party’s dismal performance at the last general election, it faces a huge task in winning a Commons majority.<\/p>\n The swing to Blair in 1997 was 10.2%, which remains a post-war record. Sir Keir needs a larger swing of 12% to win a parliamentary majority on the current boundaries.<\/p>\n The only crumb of comfort that Conservatives might take from the drubbing in North Shropshire is Labour’s own poor showing in a constituency where it finished second in 2019.<\/p>\n Its vote was squeezed mercilessly by the much smarter Liberal Democrat campaign.<\/p>\n It is now 3,319 days since Labour gained a parliamentary by-election seat from the Conservatives.<\/p>\n If a party that currently leads in the national opinion polls continues to campaign for real votes as miserably as this then comparisons with Labour’s success in 1997 is misplaced.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/e3.365dm.com\/21\/12\/768x432\/0e140168d6f59c42350a84732d97a16d920aa891170bd619113f7f2acf6cd3a8_5617794.jpg\")
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