{"id":127145,"date":"2022-05-10T16:48:37","date_gmt":"2022-05-10T16:48:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=127145"},"modified":"2022-05-10T16:48:37","modified_gmt":"2022-05-10T16:48:37","slug":"dropping-zero-covid-policy-in-china-without-safeguards-risks-1-5m-lives-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/markets\/dropping-zero-covid-policy-in-china-without-safeguards-risks-1-5m-lives-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Dropping zero-COVID policy in China without safeguards risks 1.5m lives – study"},"content":{"rendered":"
SHANGHAI\/LONDON (Reuters) – China risks just over 1.5 million COVID deaths if it drops its tough zero-COVID policy without any safeguards such as ramping up vaccination and access to treatments, according to new modelling by scientists in China and the United States.<\/p> The warning follows several recently published reports from senior health advisers in China who said the zero-COVID approach remains essential to defeating the pandemic and buying time for mitigating measures.<\/p>\n China has stuck with its zero-COVID strategy even as most other countries that once championed the policy shifted towards living with the virus in order to reopen their economies and restore personal freedoms.<\/p>\n Under zero-COVID, authorities lock down large population areas to stamp out viral spread in response to any coronavirus outbreak, even if just a small number of people test positive.<\/p>\n Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, has been locked down for nearly six weeks as it battles China\u2019s biggest coronavirus outbreak yet, with anger among residents and economic pressure mounting. [L2N2WL041]<\/p>\n But the new research published in Nature Medicine suggests that while dropping \u201czero-COVID\u201d completely could be risky for public health, the impact could be greatly mitigated by focusing on other interventions like vaccinating the elderly.<\/p>\n \u201cThe level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave,\u201d the authors wrote.<\/p>\n They forecast that peak demand on intensive care would be more than 15 times capacity, causing roughly 1.5 million deaths, based on worldwide data gathered about the variant\u2019s severity.<\/p>\n However, the researchers said the death toll could be much reduced if there was a focus on vaccination – only about 50% of over-80s in China are vaccinated – as well as providing antivirals while maintaining some restrictions.<\/p>\n The lead authors of the paper are from Fudan University in China, backed up by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health.<\/p>\n \u201cThe availability of vaccines and antiviral drugs offer an opportunity to move away from zero-COVID. I can\u2019t think what there is now to wait for,\u201d said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University familiar with the study.<\/p>\n He cautioned that the transition must be gradual.<\/p>\n But government health advisers in China are sticking to zero-COVID for now.<\/p>\n In correspondence published by the peer-reviewed medical journal the Lancet last Friday, a team of Shanghai medical experts said the city\u2019s vital role in the national Chinese economy made lockdown there unavoidable.<\/p>\n \u201cThe spill-out of virus to other places… could have unimaginably severe consequences,\u201d said the team, which includes Zhang Wenhong, an adviser to authorities in Shanghai on treatment for COVID-19.<\/p>\n Shanghai\u2019s \u201cdynamic\u201d zero-COVID policies would \u201covercome weak links in the immunological barrier in populations across the country\u201d, they said, pointing out that around 49 million Chinese aged 60 and over remained unvaccinated.<\/p>\n Zero-COVID was still required to prevent a \u201crun\u201d on China\u2019s health resources, according to a separate commentary published in the official journal of China\u2019s Disease Prevention and Control Center and co-written by senior government health adviser Liang Wannian.<\/p>\n \u201cThe dynamic COVID-zero strategies adopted by China have won a precious time window for the future,\u201d it said, adding that the country must \u201cseize the opportunity\u201d to develop more drugs and vaccines.<\/p>\n