As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles<\/strong> to give each month. Anyone can read what you share.<\/p>\n This article is part of our Midterms 2022 Daily Briefing<\/p>\n By <\/span>Blake Hounshell<\/span><\/p>\n Doug Sosnik is the kind of political analyst who likes to figure out the results of the next election well in advance \u2014 it\u2019s just how he\u2019s wired.<\/p>\n But even Sosnik, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton who now tries to forecast elections as a hobby, is stumped about the 2022 midterms.<\/p>\n \u201cI can\u2019t figure this one out,\u201d Sosnik said on Monday, a day after Democrats passed Build Back Better \u2014 whoops, pardon me, the Inflation Reduction Act, a woolly mammoth-size package that aims to shrink both the deficit and the risk of catastrophic climate change.<\/p>\n The bill\u2019s passage is one of a string of recent victories for beleaguered Democrats, who have spent the past 18 months squabbling among themselves and fretting about the coming elections. Gas prices are ticking down. Jobs are plentiful, with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low.<\/p>\n Congress also passed the bipartisan CHIPS Act, a bill that would provide $52 billion in subsidies and tax credits to companies that manufacture chips in the United States and would add more than $200 billion for applied scientific research.<\/p>\n Even President Biden, whose age and concern about the virus forced him to spend much of the 2020 presidential election campaigning from his home in Wilmington, Del., managed to shrug off 18 days of coronavirus-induced quarantine.<\/p>\n As Ethel Merman might say, everything seems to be coming up roses for Joe and the gang in recent weeks, despite widespread predictions that Democrats are likely to lose the House and possibly the Senate.<\/p>\n According to the usual logic Sosnik uses to make predictions, Democrats should expect a \u201cblood bath\u201d in the fall. But he\u2019s not so sure anymore and is questioning everything he knows about the deeper patterns of U.S. elections.<\/p>\n He is puzzled by one thing in particular: Which past elections offer a guide to 2022?<\/p>\n The question doesn\u2019t have an easy answer, in part because times have changed \u2014\u00a0there was no recent assault on the Capitol with the partial backing of one particular party in the 1982 midterms, for instance \u2014\u00a0and in part because the nature of political partisanship has changed.<\/p>\n That latter point makes it really hard to compare today\u2019s approval ratings to the past; back in, say, the 1960s, voters were much more inclined to give the president the benefit of the doubt. Today, far fewer partisans are willing to give the other side an ounce of credit or respect.<\/p>\n Midterms are completely different animals than presidential election cycles, too: Fewer voters turn out, and the electorate tends to be older and more Republican.<\/p>\n Historically, or at least since World War II, the party in power has lost seats in every midterm election but two: 1998 and 2002.<\/p>\n The first came as Clinton skillfully exploited the unpopularity of congressional Republicans, whose impeachment drive backfired. The second came after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, when patriotic sentiments were still running high.<\/p>\n But these midterms are structurally different from many others. For one thing, many of the Democratic House members in battleground districts \u2014 the Cindy Axnes and Elissa Slotkins of the world \u2014\u00a0were elected in the anti-Trump wave of 2018. Those who held onto their seats in 2020, a good year for Republicans in Congress despite Trump\u2019s loss, may know a thing or two about staying in office.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2022\/08\/08\/multimedia\/08onpolitics-capitol\/08onpolitics-capitol-articleLarge.jpg\")
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<\/p>\nA \u2018blood bath\u2019 that might never arrive<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
More Coverage of the 2022 Midterm Elections<\/h2>\n