{"id":132227,"date":"2023-04-12T05:31:08","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T05:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=132227"},"modified":"2023-04-12T05:31:08","modified_gmt":"2023-04-12T05:31:08","slug":"india-china-economic-race-who-has-won","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/","title":{"rendered":"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won?"},"content":{"rendered":"

One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate\/construction and finance.
But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For two years in a row, the Indian economy has grown faster than China’s.<\/p>\n

The 7 per cent projected for this fiscal year compares with an uncharacteristically low 3 per cent for China in calendar year 2022.<\/p>\n

Similarly, last year’s 9.1 per cent for India trumped China’s 8.1 per cent.<\/p>\n

This comes on top of the relative performance of the two most populous countries in the five years before there was any sign of Covid (the calendar years 2014-2018, and their corresponding fiscal years for India).<\/p>\n

That is when India outpaced China for the first time — averaging 7.4 per cent growth, while China managed 7 per cent.<\/p>\n

Thus began the narrative of India as the world’s fastest-growing large economy, dethroning China after some three decades when Beijing had cornered all the glory.<\/p>\n

But as always with such numbers, the story line can change when you play around with the period chosen for study.<\/p>\n

What’s missing in the picture presented in the previous paragraph are the two intervening years of 2019 and 2020, when China managed to do better than India; and to do so by such a wide margin as to flip the two countries’ positions when it comes to longer-term growth averages.<\/p>\n

China grew by 6 per cent in 2019 compared to India’s 3.9 per cent for 2019-2020, and by 2.2 per cent in the first Covid year when India’s gross domestic product shrank by 5.8 per cent.<\/p>\n

Taking the full nine years (2014-2022) together, therefore, China pipped India to the post with average growth of just over 6 per cent, compared to India’s 5.7 per cent.<\/p>\n

Even if one looks at just the last four years, starting from the pre-Covid year, China outpaced India.<\/p>\n

This somewhat uncertain result of the race, when one tries to gauge which really is the world’s fastest-growing large economy, should make one cautious about projections for the future.<\/p>\n

Until very recently, most forecasters had it that India would do significantly better than China in 2023 (2023-2024).<\/p>\n

The International Monetary Fund, for instance, postulated China’s growth at 4.4 per cent against 6.1 per cent for India.<\/p>\n

But this scenario has undergone a change in recent weeks, as China has altered course dramatically and given up its zero-tolerance policy on Covid, with the attendant shutdowns and disruptions.<\/p>\n

As a result, one forecaster after another has upped China’s growth figure for 2023.<\/p>\n

Most have moved up their China forecast to the region of 5.5 per cent; the more optimistic ones place it slightly higher.<\/p>\n

That is below the 6-6.8 per cent range held out for India in the Economic Survey of a month ago, with a mid-line forecast of 6.5 per cent.<\/p>\n

The question is whether this latter picture changes for the worse after India’s October-December GDP growth number has come in at just 4.4 per cent. Might the two cheetahs end up in another dead heat?<\/p>\n

The government has argued that the latest quarterly growth figure has suffered on account of small upward revisions of the previous three years’ growth numbers.<\/p>\n

Perhaps, but the growth number for the current January-March quarter is projected at no more than 5.1 per cent.<\/p>\n

And the chief economic advisor has been frank enough to admit that the downside risks now outweigh any possible upsides.<\/p>\n

The modified outlook is underlined by the February collections from goods and services tax.<\/p>\n

At Rs 1.49 trillion, they show little or no growth over recent months.<\/p>\n

In other words, there is no sign — yet — of the momentum that would propel India from a 5 per cent growth trajectory to 6 per cent and more.<\/p>\n

If so, the short-term outlook for the Indian economy is not very different from that for China.<\/p>\n

One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate\/construction and finance.<\/p>\n

But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government.<\/p>\n

The message is clear: If there is a growth race between India and China, there is as yet no one winner.<\/p>\n

Source: Read Full Article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate\/construction […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":132226,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nIndia-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate\/construction [...]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Fin2me\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/India-China-Economic-Race-Who-Has-Won.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/\",\"name\":\"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Business\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/category\/business\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/\",\"name\":\"Fin2me\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a\",\"name\":\"Mark\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mark\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me","og_description":"One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate\/construction [...]","og_url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/","og_site_name":"Fin2me","article_published_time":"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00","author":"Mark","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_image":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/India-China-Economic-Race-Who-Has-Won.jpg","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mark","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/","url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/","name":"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won? - Fin2me","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00","dateModified":"2023-04-12T05:31:08+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/india-china-economic-race-who-has-won\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Business","item":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/category\/business\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"India-China Economic Race: Who Has Won?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/","name":"Fin2me","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad0e9920e03d3b41c7ad02a18375d76a","name":"Mark","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/39b72719fb75a2d3c7d7695026648602?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mark"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=132227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/132226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=132227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=132227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=132227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}