{"id":133869,"date":"2023-08-07T05:39:20","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T05:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/?p=133869"},"modified":"2023-08-07T05:39:20","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T05:39:20","slug":"equity-valuations-once-again-on-the-rise-even-as-profit-moderates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fin2me.com\/business\/equity-valuations-once-again-on-the-rise-even-as-profit-moderates\/","title":{"rendered":"Equity valuations once again on the rise even as profit moderates"},"content":{"rendered":"
A steady rise in the valuation has been largely due to higher stock prices, and not because of faster growth in corporate earnings.<\/strong><\/p>\n Krishna Kant reports.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Equity valuations are once again on the rise, after they cooled down in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022.<\/p>\n The BSE Sensex trailing price-to-earnings (P\/E) multiple has risen to a 17-month high of nearly 25x, from 23.7x at the end of December 2022 and 21.6x at the end of June 2022.<\/p>\n Similarly, the index closed on Friday with a trailing price-to-book (P\/B) value ratio of 3.6x, up from 3.4x at the end of December 2022; it is the highest since December 2021.<\/p>\n A steady rise in the valuation has been largely due to higher stock prices, and not because of faster growth in corporate earnings.<\/p>\n The overall corporate earnings are showing signs of stagnation, against the trend of double-digit earnings growth in 2021 and 2022.<\/p>\n The underlying earnings per share (EPS) of the BSE Sensex on a trailing 12-month basis is up just 3.4 per cent in the past 12 months and down nearly 2 per cent from the highs made in May this year after the end of the March 2023 quarter earnings season.<\/p>\n In contrast, the index EPS was up 22.8 per cent during CY22 calendar year and 46.6 per cent during CY21.<\/p>\n The Sensex ended Friday with trailing EPS of 2,653 per unit of the index, against Rs. 2,665 a year ago and Rs. 2,567 at the end of December 2022.<\/p>\n The index EPS tracks the combined earnings of the 30 companies that are part of the index and is calculated by dividing the index closing value by its P\/E multiple.<\/p>\n The stock exchange provides the valuation ratios after the end of every trading session.<\/p>\n According to analysts, the apparent stagnation in the overall corporate earnings is due to lower-than-expected corporate profits in the past few quarters, including the April-June 2023 period (Q1FY24).<\/p>\n “The overall corporate earnings were up 9 per cent in FY23 against Street expectations of 16-17 per cent growth.<\/p>\n “Analysts now expect corporate earnings to grow by 18-10 per cent in FY24. But corporate results for Q1FY24 have failed to meet initial estimates, putting a question mark over the full-year estimates,” said Dhananjay Sinha, head strategy and research at Systematix Institutional Equity.<\/p>\n The growing dichotomy between corporate earnings and rich stock valuations has, however, started to weigh on stock prices.<\/p>\n The bull run has entered rough weather after four consecutive months of winning streak.<\/p>\n The benchmark BSE Sensex ended in the red in five out of the past six trading sessions and down 2 per cent during this period.<\/p>\n The index closed at 66,160 on Friday, down 1,412 points from its lifetime high closing of 67,572 on July 20.<\/p>\n The index is up 2.2 per cent during July, so far, compared to a 3.4 per cent rally in June.<\/p>\n The bulls, however, remain hopeful of a better earnings growth in the next three quarters of FY24 and there is no significant cut in full-year earnings estimates and this explains the index higher valuations despite stagnation in earnings.<\/p>\n