UK election polls: Would Boris beat Sir Keir if vote was held tomorrow?

Boris Johnson: Roger Gale predicts 'significant traps' for PM

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Boris Johnson’s victory at last night’s no confidence vote has raised serious questions over how long he will remain Prime Minister. Almost half of his own MPs voted against him after long-standing friction over Brexit and more recently over partygate has divided the Conservative Party.

Luckily for Mr Johnson, the next general election is not due to take place until 2024 so the Tories have time – for now – to settle their internal problems.

But what would happen if an election was held tomorrow?

Pollsters believe Mr Starmer’s Labour Party would secure a narrow victory over the Conservatives.

Figures from Redfield & Wilton Strategies shared last night put Labour ahead of the Tories by four per cent.

The fallout over partygate and the Sue Gray report have been badly damaging Boris Johnson and his Government.

Mr Starmer has hammered the Prime Minister over the events frequently in the House of Commons and called for him to resign more than once.

The Prime Minister being issued a fine by the Metropolitan Police over his actions during lockdown did not help the Government’s case.

The Redfield & Wilton data predicted Labour would gain 38 per cent of the vote compared to 34 per cent for the Conservative Party.

But Labour has its own problems and polls indicate that Mr Starmer is not a hugely popular figure among the public either.

Data from YouGov shows a similar trend of voters leaning towards Labour if an election were held tomorrow.

The latest voting-intention tracker from the polling company, which was published last Wednesday, showed Labour is leading with 39 per cent of votes compared to the Conservatives’ 31 per cent.

However, when asked whether Mr Starmer will ever become prime minister, most voters still think it unlikely.

Since February 2021 the majority of voters have thought they will not see Mr Starmer get his chance in Number 10.


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The next few months may give a clearer picture of how voters feel about the Government when two by-elections are held.

On Thursday, June 23 the seat of Wakefield in West Yorkshire and Tiverton and Honiton in Devon will be contested.

Wakefield has been historically part of Labour’s Red Wall heartlands but was won by the Conservatives in 2019.

A victory for Labour in June would pile further pressure on the Prime Minister and cause concern among Tory MPs.

Tiverton and Honiton is a safe Conservative seat and in the last general election returned a majority of 24,239 votes for former MP Neil Parish.

Mr Parish announced his intention to resign as an MP in April after admitting to watching pornography in Parliament.

The Wakefield election was triggered after the resignation of former MP Imran Ahmad Khan who was jailed after a conviction for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.

Both seats will be watched closely by Conservative HQ who will be doing everything they can to avoid defeat.

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